Merger Signs of Impending Disaster

Merger Signs of Impending Disaster

Seventy percent of mergers fail* to create value that is greater than the sum of the parts.

So how do you know if your merger is failing while there is still time to do something about it?

Watch for these signs:

The Goat Rodeo: A lack of executive alignment

Arrows withhin an arrow going every which way -lack of alignment

Instead of

Many arrows within and arrow all pointed in the same direction -aligned

Months after the close the executive team is still arguing about whether the merger or acquisition is a good idea.

  • People keep saying, “Tell me again, what was the purpose of the merger?”
  • Everybody has a different thought about:
    • What pieces of the business to rationalize
    • Who the core customers are
    • What the product categories of the future are
    • How to go to market
  • Executive staff meetings take forever!

Navel-gazing overdose

  • Internal focus leads to a lack of attention to customers and suppliers:
  • Nobody has been to see a customer in months.
  • Key suppliers, the ones you thought were your “partners,” are missing deliveries or slipping in quality or complaining about being “squeezed dry by the accountants.”

Arterial bleeding: a talent exodus

Turnover is always an important measure that things have gone awry.  Look deeper.  Are you losing:

  • Key executives or managers (the ones on the “must keep” lists)?
  • R&D scientists or technicians?
  • Long-term manufacturing process knowledge (Old Joe from Quality Testing who knows the releasers at your biggest customers)?
  • Information systems people?

“Fiddle te de, I’ll think about that tomorrow”

Rosy view accounting or forecasting is indicated by:

  • Lack of cash management focus; failure to meet cost-savings deadlines
  • Failure to redeploy or lay off people in agreed duplicate roles
  • Falling sales, which will “turn around next quarter”

(Note:  Someone will no doubt say, “Sales always go down the first year of a merger.” But then remember, most mergers fail, don’t they?)

Goliath coming over the hill: A change in the competitive landscape

Mergers are an aggressive competitive act.  Competitors will respond.  Watch for:

  • Mergers that beget other mergers, joint ventures, and alliances. Horizontal integration that begets competitive vertical integration and vice versa.
  • Competitors that respond by cutting prices, locking up supplies, flooding distribution with product, or in some way nobody has even thought of yet.
  • Competitors are suddenly attacking your traditional strongholds and gaining ground.

Competitive response raises the bar for the merger or acquisition.  What started out as adding a product or increasing capacity becomes a life or death struggle.  If nothing else, it speeds up the optimum integration timeframe.  What could comfortably be done over eighteen months now has nine months before the board starts discussing divestitures.

Spaghetti code and GIGO: information systems breakdown

Information systems touch every aspect of the business. IT and the degree to which the two companies’ systems are combined are critical success factors.  During mergers, people make changes without considering implications for IT.  Programmers make integration-expedient choices without considering the business needs of users.  Sometimes that takes the form of patching two systems together in very arcane and complex ways (spaghetti code). Other times  that takes the form of poorly defined or monitored input data that produces inaccurate or uninterpretable output reports (garbage-in-garbage-out, or GIGO).

Symptoms include:

  • You can’t get data at all or on time or the way you need it or the way you used to get it, and “nothing can be done about it.”
  • The system “crashes” again.
  • “The person who wrote that code left last month.”
  • The IT people ask for overtime, and you give it to them, doubling your IT salary costs.

Best practice Armageddon

Cultural warfare is about whose way of doing things is better.  Some of this will go on no matter what you do.  Some people will fight on for years.  But if most of your organization is paralyzed, if most people are internally focused on the past (as opposed to externally on the future), then there is a crisis.  Symptoms include:

  • A lack of experimentation
  • A lack of innovation
  • A plethora of war stories and anecdotes about the “reason we do it this way”
  • “Stonewalling” implementation of decisions you thought were made months ago
  • Lots of we/they, us/them, and “you don’t understand”
  • More discussion about “whose fault it is” than there is about how to solve the problem

Low-grade fever and general malaise

People are just “worn out” with the stress of integration.  Change is tough.  Change in a merger is tougher.  Sometimes it gets so bad that everything grinds to a halt.  Most people aren’t having fun anymore.  Symptoms include:

  • Organization climate survey scores are declining, “We’re moving too quickly!”
  • Others say, “We’re not moving quickly enough!”
  • Absenteeism and tardiness increase.
  • Employees are taking vacations at critical delivery times.
  • There is a lack of attendance at company social events.
  • A greater than usual number of people are swearing uncontrollably.

If your merger or acquisition is experiencing one or more of these symptoms, it may be time for a restart.  If it is experiencing three or more, it is time for a turnaround.

Key steps of a restart:

  1. Align executives first:
  • Agree on purpose of the merger, and the vision and strategy.
  • Agree on the values of the new organization.
  1. Plan a new integration that:
  • Utilizes a joint-team (from both firms) participative approach
  • Creates a cadre of change agents from both companies
  1. Make IT a critical-path stream.
  2. Mobilize the entire organization to make the change, impassioned by a new sense of urgency.

 

* Source: ”The Big Idea: The New M&A Playbook” Clayton Christensen, Richard Alton, Curtis Rising, Andrew Waldek; Harvard Business Review, March 2011, Updated and revalidated March 2021

Who is Your Client?

Who is Your Client?

The Company, CEO, Division Head, Shareholders, Workers, Humanity?

“Who is the client? Are you kidding me? It’s the person who hired us, the person who will pay us or not pay if you don’t do your job!”

The newbie who asked this wasn’t being a smart-aleck. The project manager met regularly with the division head and firmly believed that anyone who didn’t know that this person was the client was an idiot.

However, in the project kick-off, the CEO came and spoke to the combined team of client department heads and consultant team leads. The CEO nodded to the partner on the project and there was an obvious relationship there.  The CEO mentioned in passing that the project had been suggested by the company’s largest shareholder who sat on the board. The CEO also talked about a solution that was good for the company and its workers.

I had been “around the block” by this point, and suggested that we map the “client system as we knew it.” The project manager wasn’t happy but agreed if we included the partner, while she was still in town.

In the session the partner explained that she had met with both the shareholder and the CEO, but that was not “common knowledge.” The partner would continue to check in with her contacts over the project, but  “for the day-to-day the division head should be treated as the sole client.”

What the newbie (and perhaps others) learned is that this isn’t always a simple question.

Client Accountability

The client is always the person who is accountable for the results of the project. This is why the client is always an individual not a company, a division, or a group of any kind. Sure, presentations are often given to a leadership team and, depending on the culture, they may all have to sign off. Some may have more input than others; some may have to do more work as a result of your project. But there is usually one person who can say “Yes” when alb tl others say “No.”

In this case, the CEO and the board member viewed themselves as recommenders. The division head could have said “No” to their suggestion. He didn’t. He thought the project would help. Would he have hired a consultant on his own without prior approval?  Probably not.

To the partner, the client was the shareholder; the CEO was critically important, but didn’t initiate the project. From the point of view of the project manager and therefore the project team the client was the division head.

From a consultant’s point of view the client has two roles, hiring us and benefiting from the results of our work i.e., positive change. Sometimes both these roles are invested in the same person, but not always.

Consultant Accountability

The partner made it clear that our job was to deliver results for the division head.

She also told us that this was a very collaborative culture so the division head wasn’t the only one we had to keep happy. The project manager facilitated building a client system map with individual consultant responsibility for individual client system influencers. This was a rudimentary map. It evolved as we learned more during the project. The consultant team had periodic meetings with two-minute relationship reports.

Each team member of the ensured that our work withs and the leadership team was never caught off guard, surprised by our findings.

This experience was at Gemini Consulting doing operations improvement work, process consulting. This approach is less common in content consulting.

I worked in some expert consulting environments  (e.g., strategy projects) where findings were kept close to the vest to avoid people running off to fix things before all the data are in. The client focus in these situations was on the single client or a few on the senior leadership team.

The danger of a limited contact approach is that it often doesn’t build organizational support for implementation. The danger of the wider client system approach I described is that consultants can get co-opted into the politics of the organization.

Politics and Other Client System Conflict

Some people in organizations see consultants’ arrival as an opportunity to push their ideas. Some political players see the consultant as a way to gain power or advance at the expense of their “rivals.”  Consultants must be vigilant to avoid being “played.”

Sometimes a member of the client system does something in their own interest not the company’s interest. Rarely this is illegal or immoral.

In business school, three students including me were given a small project by a professor. An aluminum can manufacturer wanted help with warehouse capacity. Should this firm buy additional peak warehouse capacity on contract or should they buy adequate warehouse space for the peaks and contract it out during non-peak periods.

In our initial analysis we looked at the peaks in early July and January. The warehouse problem was caused by unusual can returns from the largest customer, a soft drink manufacturer. The can maker was shipping twice the monthly average to this soft drink producer in December and June, only to accept half those cans back as returns January and July. This overloaded warehouse capacity in those peaks and increased warehousing of unused inventory over time.

We asked our client, the Controller, why that might be. This accountant slapped his forehead and paid us for work to date and cancelled the project. We were bummed out.

Two months later we received a note from the professor. The Controller wanted to talk. He came to campus and we met in the professors office, all sitting very nervously.

The Controller apologized for cancelling our work and thanked us. Apparently we had uncovered a fraud scheme between the manufacturing managers at the can and the soft drink plants. The can manager was paid a bonus twice a year on production shipped (June and December) and the soft drink manager was paid a bonus on inventory reduction in February and August. This had been going on for several years. Both managers had since been investigated and fired. Apparently the scheme was suggested to them by a consultant who worked for both firms. We had naively stumbled on this by asking “Why.”

What that consultant did was wrong and most consultants would never do anything like that, but keep focused on the goals of the project and confront or report destructive behavior. Being a consultant is a fiduciary responsibility.

Your Ideal Client

I learned about ideal clients early in my career because I started working for myself. In 1987, I became an independent consultant so I could be home more with my kids. I had some sub-contract work for my former employer, bur I had to develop local business and quickly. For the first time I thought about the kind of people who might hire me. I thought about my skills, matching them to opportunities in local companies. Over time I formulated my ideal client profile.

Those who hired me were often highly analytical, but aware they had some blind spots about people. They were also curious and wanted to be involved in my process. They had a strong sense of humor and especially didn’t mind laughing at themselves.

Your ideal client may be different than mine, but it’s worth thinking about even if you work for a big firm.. Your ideal client is someone who likes you, believes in you, and for whom you provide a unique value. It might be that you fill out their flat sides. It might be that  they think you are really smart, caring, and/or competent. They key is they want to hire you.

During my first stint as an independent consultant, an old hand, Bob, said, “You only need five clients to feed you for the rest of your life. You’ll only work for two each year and that leaves two to three years between engagements.”

I could see how it worked for him. Later in my career I suspected that he was creating dependency. He wasn’t teaching his clients to outgrow him.

That is a particular bugaboo of mine. I think clients should learn to do things for themselves, actually not use consultants. (If you are a junior in a firm, don’t say this out loud. It’s heresy.)

It’s not that I didn’t work on multiple projects for the same clients over many years. I did, but I was doing different things. Sometimes a former client would call me from a new job and hire me for the work I’d done in his last firm.  But even then, I tried to reinforce what that client had learned, and engaged him or her to teach others. This attitude did mean that I engaged in more client development than Bob did at his peak. In lean periods I met with former clients seeking referrals not  work, though I didn’t turn down work if it came.

There were some times I turned down work even when I didn’t have other work to replace it. That was when I was asked to work again for a former client who created a toxic work environment for his people. It only happened two times over my entire career, but I felt good turning those engagements down. Life is too short to enable jerks.

In my view a client is someone you can help deliver results. Paraphrasing American psychologist, Carl Rogers,

  • Help is defined by the recipient.
  • Help that isn’t asked for, isn’t help; it’s interference.
  • Helping someone requires “unconditional positive regard.” You can’t help someone you don’t like.

Rogers was talking to therapists, but his advice applies to the client-consultant-relationship. too. Scope carefully and make sure both parties respect each other and ensure that you remember who is the client.

The Question Mark in the Sky

The Question Mark in the Sky

Ancient History

“Oh Wow!”

Human beings have gotten cricks in our necks staring at the night sky for a long time. The Lascaux caves in France, dating from 30,000 years ago have a graphical representation of the Pleiades; a carved mammoth ivory tusk carbon dated to 32,500 years ago has what may be the oldest existing star chart.

Astronomers often date the beginnings of their field to the Babylonians in 1000 BCE who produced the first systematic observation records of star and planet movements.  This ignores whatever observation and calculations that allowed the megalithic people to build New Grange, the barrow tomb north of Dublin where a single beam of sunlight comes through a window to an altar on the Winter Solstice or Stonehenge oriented to the Summer Solstice. How’d they do that?

Hans Lippershey invented the telescope in the Netherlands in 1608. Galileo  appropriated and improved this invention and discovered four moons orbiting Jupiter. Humans kept improving telescopes beyond two lenses and a tube. We made them with ever-larger curved mirrors; we put them on mountain tops. We figured out how to use radio waves and microwaves, infrared, ultraviolet, x-ray, gamma rays to see farther and farther out into the Universe.

In the 1920s Edward Hubble noticed that the Universe was expanding and the Big Bang origin story came into being (George Lemaître 1927).

Bang – Heat – Light – gravity forms stars – gravity sucks stars into galaxies – stars die implode (black holes) -stars suck-in-spin-off planets (like us) -and the Universe keeps expanding and expanding.

“Oh Wow!”

(Then there’s all that quantum level stuff that physicists and astronomers don’t understand – so what hope is there for me? Don’t get me started on the multiverse. Sheesh!)

Telescopes in Space

In 1990 NASA put the Hubble Space Telescope into low Earth orbit designed to avoid atmospheric distortion and all that light pollution from Earth. It was to be maintained by astronauts.  Hubble did not disappoint. We got wonderful pictures – Jupiter and Saturn as never before seen, Crab Nebula, Lagoon Nebula, star bursts, spiral galaxies – spectacular on screen and no crick in the neck.

“Oh Wow!”

Before the Hubble was even on the launch pad scientists started asking, “Hey what could we do next?”

“Bigger. We could do bigger?”

“Yeah, and farther out. Maybe three times as far. Maybe orbit the sun instead of Earth?”

“Nah, it’d get burnt by the sun.”

“Maybe stick it behind the Earth in the Legrange L2 point, like Herschel, but with a bigger wave length.”

“Whoa, dude, you are a genius, We’re gonna need some help maybe Europe and Canada.?”

“You are cooking with gas!”

Big projects take some time and the James Webb Space Telescope, a collaboration between NASA, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Space Agency was launched from a site in Africa on Christmas 2021.

In July 2022, the first pictures came back. Scientists did what scientists do. They analyzed, did calculations, tested hypotheses, compared with previous data.

“Hey wait a minute. We can see the Bang and the whole heat before light thing, but it looks like there are galaxies forming before stars? That can’t be right, can it?”

“Wait, What? And what’s that thing over there? It looks like a big question mark in the sky.?

“Oh, Wow!”

Question Mark in the Sky

It is true that the findings from the images sent to Earth from the Webb Space Telescope has caused astronomers to question certain elements of the Big Bang theory about the formation of the Universe. And they haven’t hypothesized a reason why just yet. The are working on it and I’m sure that philosophers and theologians are waiting on pins and needles.

It is also true that one of the pictures showed a big yellow question mark in the sky.

“Wait, what? Dude you can’t just put that picture out there, man.”

“Whoa.. .  Right.”

Scientists did what scientists do. They analyzed, did calculations, tested hypotheses, compared with previous data.

They came up with an explanation that sounded like what I said to my father when he observed from the passenger seat that I was going eighty miles per hour.

“Ah . . . no Dad,. . . that’s like the ‘parallax effect.’ It only looks like the speedometer is at eighty because of the angle you’re looking from. I’m really doing sixty-five.” (It didn’t work.)

“It looks like a group or a chance alignment of 2 or 3 galaxies,” Kai Noeske, ESA communication program officer, said over email. “The upper part of the question mark looks like a distorted spiral galaxy, maybe merging with a second galaxy.” Parallax effect.

“Oh, Wow! . . .Right”

An Alternate Explanation

“They are not getting it.”

“Really? Maybe we should just give it some time.”

“I am telling you, they are not getting it.”

This is the overheard thought conversation resonating between gamma rays various wave length radio waves picked up on a big-stick AM radio station in Kearney, Nebraska. It is unclear who the “speakers” are – deities, living beings of some kind, faces of a single deity,  or some other personages?

“But that is their mark of existential inquiry”

“Here is what they are saying:

“chance alignment of 2 or 3 galaxies, . . distorted spiral galaxy, maybe merging with a second galaxy… parallax effect “

“Well , , , technically that is true. That is what it is and how we are doing it and frankly it takes a lot of work. Aren’t they asking why?

“No. . . and that’s not surprising. . . that’s the pattern we’ve observed for centuries. Lots of focus on the what and how and very little on the why.”

“But we’ve never done anything this overt before.”

“They are not getting it.”

“Parallax effect? Wow! These are supposed to be the smart ones.”

“Look there’s a big question mark in the sky seen by that billion  dollar thingee they shot up. A question mark and they don’t ask why?”

“Look, they are killing each other daily, destroying the only place they have to live. Some are starving, Some are without a roof over there heads, while others have more then they could use in seven lifetimes and they don’t ask why. Why should this be any different?”

“Could we send someone down?”

“Like that has worked so well in the past.”

“Perhaps we should recognize that this experiment isn’t working? Maybe we should start over.”

“It is clear that it isn’t working. That’s why we did the question mark.”

“Maybe the question mark isn’t as clear a message as we think it is.”

“What do you mean?”

“Well. . . I know it’s a lot of work. . . but we could pull in a couple of other galaxies, an imploded star, and a black hole. . . ‘

“A Black Hole? You know how unstable those things are!”

“Yeah I know, but work with me here. Look I sketched it out. We pull these two galaxies here, crush this star in on itself, pull that nebula on its side with this star that’s about to expand. It’ll all come together just here so and their telethingee sees this:

WTF added to NASA Webb Space Telescope picture of a question mark in the stars

“Do you think they’ll get that?”

“I dunno, but it’s worth a try.”

“We could try dinosaurs again.”

“Probably not. Platypuses would be good for a laugh”

“Roaches?”

“At least they know how to survive.”.

“OK, let try your three-letter idea.”

“One more time.”

 

“ WTF? ”

R U a but-head?

R U a but-head?

Leaders require followers

“If you think you’re a leader look over your shoulder. If there is no one there, you might just be delusional.”

“I get what you’re saying, but. . .”

I was delivering leadership development; it wasn’t really training per se. Oh we did apply some new knowledge and practice some skills, but the real purpose was to communicate to a  group of middle managers that their corporation was undergoing tremendous change and they would need to step up and lead the change for their people.

I did my simplified differentiation between management and leadership:

  • Managers are accountable for getting the work done, and developing their people to ensure that. They often work in a relatively steady state environment.
  • Leaders work in abnormal circumstances. The military often talks about leadership because what could be more abnormal than war. In business abnormal circumstances are emergencies and times of change. Then leaders are accountable for direction and attracting followers. “Hey -this way -follow me!”

I went on to tell the participants that they had both responsibilities, but that the new circumstances required their leadership and emphasized the importance of followers and made my little quip about looking over your should to be sure people were following. It was a laugh line and it got some chuckles, but it also produced a  “. . .but.”

From a workshop point of view this “but” was terrific. (“Oh good a discussion.” I said to myself). It was a rich discussion and it went on a little longer than I thought it would. The inquisitive manager kept interjecting his signature phrase, “I get what you’re saying, but. . .”

Finally someone interrupted him, “Bob, don’t be a but-head!” The group exploded in laughter.

I was perplexed and they explained to me that they were echoing some training in another class, (Diversity? Creativity?) They had been advised to replace the word “But” with the word “And” and to remind them the facilitator. had said “Don’t be a but-head.”

I’ve heard this advice many times since, and this was the first time I’d heard it. We continued the discussion, making some points relevant to the leaders need followers point.

  • But divides the conversation whereas And joins it
  • Leaders need to promote unity among followers
  • Either / or choices are sometimes necessary; more often Both / And is a more appropriate way to draw in more followers.

We moved on in the workshop, and the “Don’t be a but-head” comment became a running joke over the week. I was amazed how such a simple concept had captured the imagination of the group and had many applications to leading change.

Don’t be a but-head

But and And are both conjunctions, grammatically they join two ideas. And pulls two ideas together. But separates the two ideas. I was told by a co-worker early in my career how to get through performance appraisals.

“Listen for the ‘But” everything before the ‘but’ is B.S. What follows the ‘But’ is what they want you to pay attention to.”

I took this to heart and probably missed a lot of positive feedback over the years. It probably added mass to the chip on my shoulder toward managers and anyone with authority over me.

Imagine the change in effect of:

“Alan you get things done, and bring in projects on time and on budget, and I want you to work on ensuring that an editor goes over your writing before we go live.”

 

“I love the creativity of this approach. I think it will make a huge difference to the client, and I want you to gather more feedback about possible downsides.

So a leader might avoid saying “But” when there are two very valid points to communicate and you want both to be heard equally.

Another circumstance to avoid “But” is in any kind of divergent thinking. When we are trying to expand thinking or increase the quantity of information or ideas “Buts” get in the way. The most obvious example is brainstorming. “Great idea, but. . .” has the effect of shutting down idea generation.

In any discovery discussions, as when you are gather data about customer needs or the causes of an accident “And. . ?” says “Tell me more;” “But says stop and change your information,” or “I disagree with you.”

When anyone says to me “I hear what you’re saying, but. . .” I expect a counter argument. If someone were to say “I see what you’re saying and. . .” I’d expect agreement and perhaps action toward a solution.”

When but-heads are needed

Someone in the class made the leap that managers were ‘but-head’ but leaders were “and heads.” I said I didn’t know that that was true and I could think of times when the division of the “but” was really necessary in times of change.

Anytime a group is doing convergent thinking, testing a plan, searching for risks or unintended consequences, a but-head mentality shines.

“I see from the sales projections that this product will experience a thirty percent increase in sales in year four, but what is that projection actually based upon?”

 

“I see that we are increasing gas production four-fold by a combination multiple well drilling, an water injection into the reservoir, but have we tested the stability of the limestone barrier that separates the reservoir from the aquifer?”

 

“I understand that we can speed nuclear missile response time with an autonomous AI response system based upon satellite imagery of enemy silo launch, but exactly how confident are we in the accuracy of the satellite imaging system this is based upon?”

 

“I know our truck customer survey data indicates strong buying intentions for electric vehicles, but have we mapped customers by region vs. the availability of 220 volt lines on the existing grid and the density of new charging stations?”

 

So is being a but-head a matter of timing? Maybe. It is definitely a skillset that is more useful at the end of an innovation process. I think it may be more about the purpose of your communication.

Are you trying to improve quality, weed out the uncommitted, test for risk, including bias, or unintended consequences? Maybe saying “But” and uncoupling two somewhat unlike ideas is a good idea.

Are you trying to bring people on board as followers? Are you trying to generate ideas, or discover fact and opinion, ensure that all data has been looked at?

Then “Don’t be a but-head.”